BY THOMAS SUMNER - https://www.sciencenews.org/article/iceless-arctic-summers-now-expected-2050s
HOT WATER The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free almost a decade earlier than previously predicted, new calculations suggest.
Santa Claus could be treading water sooner than thought. An improved forecast of Arctic sea ice coverage predicts that the region will have its first ice-free summer almost a decade earlier than previously projected.
Climate scientists fine-tuned simulations of future climate by adding ice‒ocean interactions and measurements that were more detailed than previously used. The tweaks reduce uncertainty in sea ice predictions by as much as 60 percent. The Arctic Ocean will go ice-free in the summer around 2052, nine years earlier than previously forecast, the researchers from the University of Reading in England predict online July 22 in The Cryosphere Discussions.
An iceless North Pole will open the top of the world to trans-Arctic shipping and could impact climate elsewhere, the researchers write.
Meltdown
Revised sea ice thickness estimates (bottom) suggest that the Arctic could be ice-free around nine years earlier than previously predicted. Ice is denoted by white and pale blue; as the blue darkens, the ice gets thinner, until the darkest blue represents open ocean.
N. MELIA, K. HAINES AND E. HAWKINS/THE CRYOSPHERE DISCUSSIONS 2015 CC BY 3.0 US
Who would remember their prediction in the 2050s?
ReplyDeleteThe sea surface temperature anomaly shows right now quite a big blue color area between Newfoundland and Ireland. Right in the gulf stream area.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/equirectangular
Is the gulf stream cooling? Maybe? This could be the reason why a Beluga whale was spotted off the coast of Northern Ireland. http://www.seawatchfoundation.org.uk/beluga-rare-arctic-visitor-to-the-british-isles/
The June temperature for Ireland was below average. July could be below average, too. I checked some individual average temperatures and they show 2-3 degree Celsius below 2013.
The mean 10cm soil temperature is also quite lower than in 2013. That might be the reason why the lawn mower is quite idle.
I bet it will get colder. Considering that in the last 450000 years of the ice core data, more than 90% of the time the temperature was lower then today, the odds are on my side. In the last 7500 years the earth had 18 little ice ages and the 19th is coming sooner or later. Maybe it has already started. Time will tell.
Colder is for sure! If you are doing a NW Passage - sooner is better than later... more ice is not a good thing with recreational boats made of FRP... lol
DeleteWell I don't have a fancy computer model, but trees do not grow to the sky, and I think the cycle has turned.
ReplyDeleteArctic had warming 1918-1938, cooling from 1939-1968, warming from 1969-20?? (2008 & 2012 are most popular) Some say it is still warming, but what we are probably seeing is a slow change to cooling with an expanding cycle. IF this progression continues, cooling could easily last fifty years before a new slower warm cycle begins . Not being immortal, I won't take any bets, but my best guess for an ice free Arctic summer would be circa 2122.
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