http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.com/2015/07/week-3-can-mv-andros-complete-northwest.html
Previous weeks:
Week 2
Week 1
20150802-1200 hrs Noon Report
58.7225988N -164.7839355W stbd beam ~86nm Cape Newenham ...
Underway in the Bering Sea for Port of Nome Alaska
N15, seas less than 3 feet, morning light haze/fog, Baro. 30.88" Hg steady
DMG 186 av 7.75 DTG 341 Nome ETA 20150804-0700 hrs.
M/E 1200rpm p/s CW 180F
ROB 3956 FO 500 PW (R/O top off)
POB 4 all well
Cape Newenham Long Range Radar Site (LRRS) is a remote United States Air Force (USAF) installation situated on Cape Newenham. Cape Newenham is a small peninsula on the southwest coast of Alaska and marks the divide between Kuskokwim Bay to the north and Bristol Bay to the south. The LRRS consists of 2,359-acres and is situated across the center of the peninsula (coast to coast). Cape Newenham is located approximately 460 air miles southwest of Anchorage. The Togiak National Wildlife Refuge (formerly Cape Newenham Wildlife Refuge) occupies the rest of the peninsula along with an additional four million acres. Cape Newenham and Cape Newenham LRRS are accessible only by air or sea. The nearest community is Platinum, located 30 miles northwest on the shores of Goodnews Bay, with a population of approximately 40.
The LRRS was one of the 10 original aircraft control and warning sites constructed in Alaska as part of the establishment of a permanent air defense system. This system provided radar coverage over the segment of Alaska ’s west coast. Construction of the installation was started in 1950 and was completed in 1952. Cape Newenham LRRS became operational in 1954. The installation’s early technology provided radar coverage by a radio system. The original radio system was replaced in 1957 by a White Alice Communication System (WACS), a system of Air Force-owned tropospheric scatter and microwave radio relay sites. The WACS was deactivated and replaced in 1979 with an Alascom-owned satellite communication system.
Angelo landing the Super DC3 at Cape Newenham (note runway slope & scenery)
Video url: https://youtu.be/rGCE6Rl_1fo
Angelo lands the TransNorthern Aviation Super DC3 in Cape Newenham, Alaska. This is an Air Force field at a Long Range Radar Station on the coast of southwest Alaska. It is situated on a rocky point of land jutting into the ocean. Weather is very unpredictable and the wind blows very hard. The landing is uphill into a dead end valley that you will not outclimb on a runway that slopes upward at 7.9%. Yes, the movie camera is held at the proper angle. The runway is really that steep! You can see that the aircraft is well below the cameraman upon touchdown. The runway is well maintained, quite long and very wide. If you don't plan the rollout well it will take considerable power to reach the parking area. Takeoff is downhill over the ocean with a cliff on the end of the runway. Caribou and other wildlife are abundant. See other videos of the dramatic weather changes. More information on the Super DC 3 is available at the TransNorthern website: www.transnorthern.com
Cape Newenham takeoff: https://youtu.be/sC2DNYC_Ytw
Trans Northern Super DC-3: https://youtu.be/yc0h2Wev66Q
Weather check:
Synopsis: HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH MON NIGHT. A 1001 MB LOW 295 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO 195 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT AT 1004 MON AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 1008 MB WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
PKZ200-030030-
NORTON SOUND- 428 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. .TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. .MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. .MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. .TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. .TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. .WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. .THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
Commercial Fishing - BRISTOL BAY ALASKA
52,000,000 sockeye salmon @6 lbs average per salmon = 312,000,000 lbs.
Video url: https://youtu.be/1IA00o8-Mcw
20150802 Weather Map:
20150803-1200 Noon Report
61.7861105N -166.3110352W stbd beam Cape Romanzof
W15-20 Seas 4 baro. 30.86" Hg falling - in the trough stacking against Yukon River
Visibility ~1 in fog.
DMG 202 av 8.42 DTG 161 (+19 hrs = 20150804-0700)
M/E 1200rpm p/s CW 180F
ROB 3709 FO 400 PW (R/O off - prevent Yukon River silt contamination)
POB 4 all well
Wx: +24hr, +48 hr & +96 hr forecasts
Cape Romanzof
Cape Romanzof Airport is a United States Air Force military airstrip. Its mission is to provide access to the Cape Romanzof Long Range Radar Station for servicing and other requirements.
The Yukon River is a major watercourse of northwestern North America. The source of the river is located in British Columbia, Canada. The next portion lies in, and gives its name to, Yukon.
Length: 1,980 miles
Discharge: 227,000 ft³/sec.
The Yukon River is home to one of the longest salmon runs in the world. Each year Chinook, coho, and chum salmon return to their terminal streams in Alaska, the Yukon Territories, and British Columbia. The Chinook have the longest journey, with an estimated 35–50% bound for Canada. As salmon do not eat during their spawning migration, Yukon River salmon must have great reserves of fat and energy to fuel their thousands-mile long journey. As a result Yukon River salmon are noted for their especially rich and oily meat.
The villages along the Yukon have historically and continue to rely on salmon for their cultural, subsistence, and commercial needs. Salmon are traditionally dried, smoked, and frozen for both human and sled dog consumption. Common methods of fishing on the Yukon include set gillnets, drift nets, dip nets, and fish wheels. The preference of certain gear is largely dependent on the river's varied characteristics in different areas. Some parts of the river do not have eddies to make set-nets successful, whereas in other places the tributaries are small enough to make drifting impractical.
20150804-0700 hrs. Port of Nome Alaska
DMG 161 av 8 DTG 0.
ROB 3517 FO 400 PW (R/O off - to prevent contamination)
POB 4 all well.
Arrived Port of Nome south dock stbd side to (64.4997816N -165.4228377W) and unloaded our Land Rover jeep for transportation.
Nome webcam: http://www.visitnomealaska.com/nome-cam/
Nome has a seaport, used by freight ships and cruise ships, located at 64° 30’ N and 165° 24’ W on the southern side of the Seward Peninsula in Norton Sound. The Corps of Engineers completed the Nome Harbor Improvements Project in the summer of 2006 adding a 3,025 ft (922 m) breakwater east of the existing Causeway and a 270 ft (82 m) spur on the end of the Causeway making it to a total of 2,982 feet (909 m). The City Dock (south) on the Causeway is equipped with marine headers to handle the community's bulk cargo and fuel deliveries. The City Dock is approximately 200 feet (61 m) in length with a depth of 22.5 feet (MLLW). The WestGold Dock (north) is 190 feet (58 m) in length with the same depth of 22.5 feet (ML,LW). The Westgold dock handles nearly all of the exported rock/gravel for this region and is the primary location to load/unload heavy equipment. The opening between the new breakwater and the Causeway (Outer Harbor Entrance) is approximately 500 feet (150 m) in width and serves as access to both Causeway deep water docks and the new Snake River entrance that leads into the Small Boat Harbor. The old entrance along the seawall has been filled in and is no longer navigable. (See photos on website) Buoys outline the navigation channel from the outer harbor entrance into the inner harbor. The Nome Small Boat Harbor has a depth of 10 feet (MLLW) and offers protected mooring for recreational and fishing vessels alongside 2 floating docks. Smaller cargo vessels and landing crafts load village freight and fuel at the east, west and south inner harbor sheet pile docks, east beach landing and west barge ramp for delivery in the region. A new addition to the Nome facility in 2005 was a 60-foot-wide (18 m) concrete barge ramp located inside the inner harbor just west of the Snake River entrance. The ramp provides the bulk cargo carriers with a suitable location closer to the Causeway to trans-load freight to landing crafts and roll equipment on and off barges. This location also has approximately 2 acres (8,100 m2) of uplands to be used for container, vessel and equipment storage.
Videos are a good way to tell you about Nome.... click the links to watch.
ANDROS promo video url: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGFaQuIRz28
Cruising through Nome, Alaska video url: https://youtu.be/bJvXQB1FDVo
The villages along the Yukon have historically and continue to rely on salmon for their cultural, subsistence, and commercial needs. Salmon are traditionally dried, smoked, and frozen for both human and sled dog consumption. Common methods of fishing on the Yukon include set gillnets, drift nets, dip nets, and fish wheels. The preference of certain gear is largely dependent on the river's varied characteristics in different areas. Some parts of the river do not have eddies to make set-nets successful, whereas in other places the tributaries are small enough to make drifting impractical.
20150804-0700 hrs. Port of Nome Alaska
DMG 161 av 8 DTG 0.
ROB 3517 FO 400 PW (R/O off - to prevent contamination)
POB 4 all well.
Arrived Port of Nome south dock stbd side to (64.4997816N -165.4228377W) and unloaded our Land Rover jeep for transportation.
Nome webcam: http://www.visitnomealaska.com/nome-cam/
Nome has a seaport, used by freight ships and cruise ships, located at 64° 30’ N and 165° 24’ W on the southern side of the Seward Peninsula in Norton Sound. The Corps of Engineers completed the Nome Harbor Improvements Project in the summer of 2006 adding a 3,025 ft (922 m) breakwater east of the existing Causeway and a 270 ft (82 m) spur on the end of the Causeway making it to a total of 2,982 feet (909 m). The City Dock (south) on the Causeway is equipped with marine headers to handle the community's bulk cargo and fuel deliveries. The City Dock is approximately 200 feet (61 m) in length with a depth of 22.5 feet (MLLW). The WestGold Dock (north) is 190 feet (58 m) in length with the same depth of 22.5 feet (ML,LW). The Westgold dock handles nearly all of the exported rock/gravel for this region and is the primary location to load/unload heavy equipment. The opening between the new breakwater and the Causeway (Outer Harbor Entrance) is approximately 500 feet (150 m) in width and serves as access to both Causeway deep water docks and the new Snake River entrance that leads into the Small Boat Harbor. The old entrance along the seawall has been filled in and is no longer navigable. (See photos on website) Buoys outline the navigation channel from the outer harbor entrance into the inner harbor. The Nome Small Boat Harbor has a depth of 10 feet (MLLW) and offers protected mooring for recreational and fishing vessels alongside 2 floating docks. Smaller cargo vessels and landing crafts load village freight and fuel at the east, west and south inner harbor sheet pile docks, east beach landing and west barge ramp for delivery in the region. A new addition to the Nome facility in 2005 was a 60-foot-wide (18 m) concrete barge ramp located inside the inner harbor just west of the Snake River entrance. The ramp provides the bulk cargo carriers with a suitable location closer to the Causeway to trans-load freight to landing crafts and roll equipment on and off barges. This location also has approximately 2 acres (8,100 m2) of uplands to be used for container, vessel and equipment storage.
Videos are a good way to tell you about Nome.... click the links to watch.
ANDROS promo video url: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGFaQuIRz28
Cruising through Nome, Alaska video url: https://youtu.be/bJvXQB1FDVo
Dredges In Nome Alaska video url: https://youtu.be/KQYW_6XYEzY
Bering Sea Gold Dredge Tugboat Disaster video url: https://youtu.be/MRvXFAEaWrU
Gold Dredging in Nome Alaska video url: https://youtu.be/kubQSLgwWnk
There are some 100 dredges of all sizes and shapes and their crews in Nome... its a very busy place... under the midnight sun... maybe a few hours of semi-darkness.
20150807-1200 hrs
The Alaska Arctic ice continues to be of the greatest concern - it is pressed up against the Arctic Alaska coast. There is no urgent need to push through low concentration ice to transit this area since there are larger ice-blockages to the east in Victoria, Rae, Larsen, Franklin, Peel, Bellot & Reagent so why not be patient and wait in Nome rather than some mosquito invested anchorage in the bush being hunted by Polar Bears!
I'll continue to check weather - what I'm looking for is a moderate to strong weather system which will exert offshore winds to push open a wider lane of ice free waters to navigate. Notice several days below forecast winds from the south - then I'll check to see how the ice chart has reacted to those forcings. It would be good for a gale strength storm to pass through Arctic Alaska. Remember we are talking about moving millions of tons of ice... patience is a virtue!
42NM N POINT LAY AK
Synopsis: A 998 MB LOW 100 NM NE OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NW OF POINT LAY BY SAT MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING E OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. BY SUN MORNING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.
Today SW20 Seas 7 Fog.
Tonight S20 Seas 7 Fog.
Sat S15 Seas 5 Fog.
Sat Night S15 Seas 5.
Sun NW15 Seas 4.
Sun Night W10 Seas 4.
Mon SW15 Seas 3.
Tue SE25 Seas 9.
PT. BARROW AK
Today Variable winds 5 kt or less. Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 4pm. Areas of fog. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight S wind 5 to 10 kt becoming E in the evening. A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Areas of fog. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Saturday NE wind around 10 kt. A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 4pm, then a slight chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Saturday Night ENE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Seas around 2 ft.
Sunday SSW wind around 10 kt. Cloudy. Seas around 2 ft.
Sunday Night WSW wind 10 to 15 kt. A chance of rain and snow showers. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Monday SW wind 10 to 15 kt. A chance of rain and snow showers. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Monday Night Variable winds 5 kt or less. A chance of showers. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tuesday Variable winds 5 kt or less. A chance of showers. Seas 1 ft or less.
20150808-1200 hrs - weather check
Today...
Continued on Week 5:
http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.com/2015/08/week-5-can-mv-andros-complete-northwest.html
Bookmark this page to check back here.
The plan is to top off with marine #2 diesel later today...We will check weather and ice then make a departure decision.
While we are in port only one meal a day at noon will be prepared so all of the crew who are off-watch can enjoy time ashore in Nome!
Watches never stop - everyone has a 4 hour AM watch and a 4 hour PM watch.
Nome's Climate? Here it is...
Questions? Put it into the comments below and watch for a reply.
Voyage planning:
Nome to Pt. Barrow 565nm @ 8kts = 70.6hrs (2.94 days, say 3 days)
Pt. Barrow to Hershel Island 378nm @8kts = 47.3hrs (1.97 days, say 2 days)
Herschel to Cambridge Bay 767nm @8kts = 95.8hrs (3.99 days, say 4 days)
Sum: 1710nm @8kts = 214hrs burning 10.3 gal/hr = 2,204 gallons (-44%)
Cambridge Bay to Sisimuit 1500nm @8kts = 188hrs, = 1,937 gallons (-39%)
Total: 4141 gallons ROB 859 gallons (+17%)
Every 500 gallons taken at Cambridge extends +2 days or about +10% beyond the calculated +17% margin at arrival Sisimuit Greenland
Ice chart check:
Latest Google Earth KMZ downloadable ice file:
While we are in port only one meal a day at noon will be prepared so all of the crew who are off-watch can enjoy time ashore in Nome!
Watches never stop - everyone has a 4 hour AM watch and a 4 hour PM watch.
Nome's Climate? Here it is...
| [hide]Climate data for Nome, Alaska | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
| Record high °F (°C) | 51 (11) | 48 (9) | 44 (7) | 60 (16) | 78 (26) | 86 (30) | 86 (30) | 83 (28) | 71 (22) | 59 (15) | 50 (10) | 43 (6) | 86 (30) |
| Average high °F (°C) | 13.1 (−10.5) | 15.4 (−9.2) | 18.5 (−7.5) | 27.5 (−2.5) | 43.1 (6.2) | 54.9 (12.7) | 58.2 (14.6) | 55.9 (13.3) | 48.7 (9.3) | 34.5 (1.4) | 23.1 (−4.9) | 16.8 (−8.4) | 34.14 (1.21) |
| Average low °F (°C) | −2.8 (−19.3) | −0.5 (−18.1) | 2.1 (−16.6) | 13.5 (−10.3) | 30.5 (−0.8) | 40.7 (4.8) | 46.2 (7.9) | 44.3 (6.8) | 36.9 (2.7) | 23.0 (−5) | 10.7 (−11.8) | 2.2 (−16.6) | 20.57 (−6.36) |
| Record low °F (°C) | −54 (−48) | −42 (−41) | −46 (−43) | −30 (−34) | −11 (−24) | 20 (−7) | 28 (−2) | 23 (−5) | 9 (−13) | −10 (−23) | −39 (−39) | −42 (−41) | −54 (−48) |
| Average precipitation inches (mm) | .94 (23.9) | .93 (23.6) | .65 (16.5) | .76 (19.3) | .86 (21.8) | .98 (24.9) | 2.11 (53.6) | 3.22 (81.8) | 2.45 (62.2) | 1.61 (40.9) | 1.22 (31) | 1.08 (27.4) | 16.81 (426.9) |
| Average snowfall inches (cm) | 12.7 (32.3) | 12.2 (31) | 8.9 (22.6) | 7.5 (19.1) | 2.3 (5.8) | .3 (0.8) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | .6 (1.5) | 4.6 (11.7) | 12.1 (30.7) | 14.5 (36.8) | 75.7 (192.3) |
| Average precipitation days (≥ 0.01 inch) | 10.7 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 132.1 |
| Average snowy days (≥ 0.1 inch) | 11.0 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 3.5 | .3 | 0 | 0 | .9 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 72.7 |
| Mean monthly sunshine hours | 62.0 | 141.3 | 204.6 | 246.0 | 291.4 | 276.0 | 251.1 | 176.7 | 153.0 | 117.8 | 66.0 | 52.7 | 2,038.6 |
| Source: NOAA (1981–2010 normals, snowfall days 1981–2011, extremes 1906–present)[5] Hong Kong Observatory (sun only, 1961–1990)[6] The Weather Channel[7] | |||||||||||||
Questions? Put it into the comments below and watch for a reply.
Voyage planning:
Nome to Pt. Barrow 565nm @ 8kts = 70.6hrs (2.94 days, say 3 days)
Pt. Barrow to Hershel Island 378nm @8kts = 47.3hrs (1.97 days, say 2 days)
Herschel to Cambridge Bay 767nm @8kts = 95.8hrs (3.99 days, say 4 days)
Sum: 1710nm @8kts = 214hrs burning 10.3 gal/hr = 2,204 gallons (-44%)
Cambridge Bay to Sisimuit 1500nm @8kts = 188hrs, = 1,937 gallons (-39%)
Total: 4141 gallons ROB 859 gallons (+17%)
Every 500 gallons taken at Cambridge extends +2 days or about +10% beyond the calculated +17% margin at arrival Sisimuit Greenland
Ice chart check:
SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
235 PM AKDT MONDAY 03 AUGUST 2015
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 8 AUGUST 2015
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...LOW EXCEPT MODERATE TO HIGH OFF NW ALASKA COAST
SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT
SEAS WILL SHIFT OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTH OF BARROW THURSDAY AND SHIFT OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA FRIDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL
PASS ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY... WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY.
THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE ALASKA COAST NEAR 71.0N 157.2W TO 71.5N 158.4W TO 71.0N 158.6W TO 71.6N 165.0W TO 72.4N 160.4W TO 73.4N 169.5W AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN WATERS.THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PASS OVER THE ICE EDGE THURSDAY... WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ICE EDGE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEA ICE FLOES NEAR THE ICE EDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MELTING OWING TO WATER TEMPS AND WAVE ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MUCH OF THE SEA ICE REMAINING NEAR THE HANNAH SHOAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE DESTROYED. ASIDE FROM THE HANNAH SHOAL REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH 10 TO 20 NM THROUGH SATURDAY. -BEAUFORT SEA- THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF BANKS ISLAND TO THE COAST NEAR 69.5N 139.1W.THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING NEAR THE ICE EDGE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEA ICE CONCENTRATIONS NEAR THE ICE EDGE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL ICE EDGE POSITION THROUGH SATURDAY. $$
Latest Google Earth KMZ downloadable ice file:
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/data/ice/shapefiles/latestIceMap.kmz
or
the online version is here: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/icemap.php
I prefer using Google Earth because I can zoom in and click to see ice concentrations and reference known Alaska locations knowing there are sand islands offshore - is there a wide enough berth between the sand islands and the ice flow to transit the area if the winds shift from offshore to onshore?
Checking ice charts further east (there is no need to hurry up and be at the front of the ice-blockages which is the "danger zone" when you can be several days distance behind and enjoy the voyage... some people create unnecessary drama by their boneheaded decisions.
Just look at the opportunity that is unfolding... given more weeks of melting... will it be wide-open when we return west bound? Hope so... it would be a fantastic routing... can't wait to see it in another month.
Based upon the small ice free fairway eastward over Arctic Alaska and the two forecast Arctic lows we will wait in Nome for several days to allow more Arctic ice to clear and Arctic weather to improve.
20150805-1200 hours
Same as before - Nome small boat harbor south dock stbd side to dock.
Waiting for improved Arctic ice & weather.
20150806-1200 hours
or
the online version is here: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/icemap.php
I prefer using Google Earth because I can zoom in and click to see ice concentrations and reference known Alaska locations knowing there are sand islands offshore - is there a wide enough berth between the sand islands and the ice flow to transit the area if the winds shift from offshore to onshore?
Checking ice charts further east (there is no need to hurry up and be at the front of the ice-blockages which is the "danger zone" when you can be several days distance behind and enjoy the voyage... some people create unnecessary drama by their boneheaded decisions.
Just look at the opportunity that is unfolding... given more weeks of melting... will it be wide-open when we return west bound? Hope so... it would be a fantastic routing... can't wait to see it in another month.
Based upon the small ice free fairway eastward over Arctic Alaska and the two forecast Arctic lows we will wait in Nome for several days to allow more Arctic ice to clear and Arctic weather to improve.
20150805-1200 hours
Same as before - Nome small boat harbor south dock stbd side to dock.
Waiting for improved Arctic ice & weather.
20150806-1200 hours
Same as before - Nome small boat harbor
Waiting for improved Arctic ice & weather.
PKZ298-071330- 224 PM AKDT THU AUG 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST... A 1020 MB HIGH 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE E INTO CANADA THU NIGHT. A 998 MB 100 NM NW OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE 150 NM W OF BARROW 4PM SAT AND TO NEAR BARROW 4PM SUN WEAKENING TO 1003 MB. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO BARROW TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE 4AM FRI THEN TO PRUDHOE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE THROUGH 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH 4PM SAT.
The ice outlook is poor... I will check back Friday and make a decision... otherwise its back to enjoying Nome!
20150807-1200 hrs
The Alaska Arctic ice continues to be of the greatest concern - it is pressed up against the Arctic Alaska coast. There is no urgent need to push through low concentration ice to transit this area since there are larger ice-blockages to the east in Victoria, Rae, Larsen, Franklin, Peel, Bellot & Reagent so why not be patient and wait in Nome rather than some mosquito invested anchorage in the bush being hunted by Polar Bears!
I'll continue to check weather - what I'm looking for is a moderate to strong weather system which will exert offshore winds to push open a wider lane of ice free waters to navigate. Notice several days below forecast winds from the south - then I'll check to see how the ice chart has reacted to those forcings. It would be good for a gale strength storm to pass through Arctic Alaska. Remember we are talking about moving millions of tons of ice... patience is a virtue!
42NM N POINT LAY AK
Synopsis: A 998 MB LOW 100 NM NE OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NW OF POINT LAY BY SAT MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING E OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. BY SUN MORNING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.
Today SW20 Seas 7 Fog.
Tonight S20 Seas 7 Fog.
Sat S15 Seas 5 Fog.
Sat Night S15 Seas 5.
Sun NW15 Seas 4.
Sun Night W10 Seas 4.
Mon SW15 Seas 3.
Tue SE25 Seas 9.
PT. BARROW AK
Today Variable winds 5 kt or less. Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 4pm. Areas of fog. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight S wind 5 to 10 kt becoming E in the evening. A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Areas of fog. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Saturday NE wind around 10 kt. A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 4pm, then a slight chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Saturday Night ENE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Seas around 2 ft.
Sunday SSW wind around 10 kt. Cloudy. Seas around 2 ft.
Sunday Night WSW wind 10 to 15 kt. A chance of rain and snow showers. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Monday SW wind 10 to 15 kt. A chance of rain and snow showers. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Monday Night Variable winds 5 kt or less. A chance of showers. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tuesday Variable winds 5 kt or less. A chance of showers. Seas 1 ft or less.
20150808-1200 hrs - weather check
Today...
20150810 - Monday
20150811 - Tuesday
The open waters along the Arctic Alaska coast are slowly increasing... thanks to several low pressure systems moving through the region... but the coastal sand island shoals (no visible on the maps) make the true ice free waters even narrower than pictured above... here is the same time in 2014... note how much more open water... The reason for more open water is simple - should the winds and currents change the near shore ice can be forced to shore - effectively trapping a small yacht and heavens forbid push it onto the beach... OUCH! Knowing that a motor vessel can transit the area from...
Pt. Barrow to Hershel Island 378nm @8kts = 47.3hrs (1.97 days, say 2 days)
means you can determine a good 'weather window' and run the gauntlet... Should be stay or should be go?
Based upon several of the 2014 eastern ice-blockages not opening until the first week of September - it makes prudent sense to wait at Nome. Working some math backwards to arrive Bellot Strait on September 1st would take 11 days to transit meaning departure Nome no later than August 20th.
Should key NW Passage waterways (i.e. Victoria, Rae, Larsen, Franklin and Peel) open earlier we can depart at that earlier time - this strategy provides us with 2 weeks of flexibility.
Decision? To stand by at Nome!
Alternative for consideration in a few days would be to advance to Elson Lagoon and enjoy Barrow hospitality. (12 mile taxi ride available via VHF radio)
Past 3-days weather video at Barrow Alaska:
Continued on Week 5:
http://northwestpassage2015.blogspot.com/2015/08/week-5-can-mv-andros-complete-northwest.html
Bookmark this page to check back here.
How do you know when to be at a particular place?
ReplyDeleteThe simple answer is 1. Observation of conditions and 2. Let history be your guide. The best example of the future is the past. Hope that answers your question. I've been keeping detailed records for the last five years - I use them often to look for trends or patterns. 2015 is way early in most places with breakup - yet there are other places way behind - its been an unusual year so far. You must now trust you skills at observation... a keen observer sees that life is full of mysteries not answers...
DeleteTypically how long does the passage stay ice free... (If you had to guess using the last 10 years data?)
ReplyDeleteThere never has been an "ice free" period that I know of in the last ten years but there is a general minimum ice season from July to October depending on specific locations. Old timers used to say that if you are in the Passage in September you should start planning to winter over... I think that has changed to October... but it all depends... there are various factors that change every year and weather plays an important part in the overall system so its not a clear cut answer.
ReplyDeleteDownload this publications and look for "freeze-up" and "breakup" charts: http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/folios/00913/docs/ice-navigation-dans-les-galces-eng.pdf
ReplyDelete